Concussion and Stock Trading
Feb. 7th, 2019 02:23 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
rinueThe two things going on in my life right now which I find notable or unusual are a probably-non-concussion, and stock trading.
CONCUSSION?:
About two weeks ago, I was rear-ended on the highway by a speeder. My van was totalled. However, I am an excellent driver (this is the first wreck I've ever been involved in; I maintain enough road awareness that I can usually dodge whatever nonsense is coming at me) and was able to prevent a chain reaction crash by steering into a very sturdy tow truck which was already pulled over, and I had braked to below 5 mph by the time of contact. (If I'd had a few more feet...) And then I was set up to go directly onto the tow truck.
As a result, I might have a very mild concussion, by which I mean that each time I get a sinus headache I am thinking: maybe this is an indicator of concussion. And on the one hand, I suspect this is paranoia. But on the other hand, maybe I completely have a concussion and it's silly of me to think I might not, because I was in a crash that destroyed a 2-ton vehicle.
The real story here is I have a headache today and it's annoying.
STOCKS:
In 2016, I started researching stuff I might want to invest in, for a mixture of reasons which include:
- I have no pension or 401K matching, and would like to retire sometime
- also I could become unable to work or my job could disappear
- I think I would be good at trading equities and would enjoy it
- the above is something a lot of people say and are wrong about, so I should test this theory
- even though as an individual I think savings are extremely valuable, I think from a macroeconomic standpoint they're hoarding and reduce overall wealth because dollars are not being passed on
However, it seemed prudent to wait until after the election, because there seemed to be a lot of exuberance about Trump, and even though I thought he was going to lose, I also thought valuations had gotten pretty irrational. And then Trump was elected and there was that big 2017 boom and although that's exactly the time a lot of people would jump in I felt like "no these things are not this value and I don't want to buy them at that price; these are not based on fundamentals." Which worked out for me because the market took a 10% haircut over the course of 2018 and came back into line with what I think (some) things are worth. (I mean, I spent all year saying "this is overheated and we're about to go into recession." And now instituational investors are saying the same thing, instead of saying "no you're worried about nothing." So ok, we are in the same reality and can do business.)
So at the start of this year I started quitely moving a few thousand dollars at a time into things that I thought were going places. So far they have. I make more purchases every two weeks or so, to spread out (or ladder) my holdings.
Emotionally, it's been an interesting experience, although I try to be dispassionate while I'm doing it. It's interesting partly because a lot of the retail investment advice you hear on the news is targeted at people investing for retirement, which is sort of me - but what I mean is, it's targeted for people who don't know what they're doing, who want essentially high-return savings accounts and see the stock market as that. It's not bad advice, the advice around buying into ETFs and mutual funds (I've done some of that). Most of the advice is: do not buy individual stocks, since you don't know what you're doing.
And it hits me how unusual my family life has been, because my dad was an active investor and his dad was an active investor. Stock prospectuses come to our house all the time. I think we keep the postal service in business. We subscribe to The Wall Street Journal even though we think the Op-Eds are horrifying, because it covers the markets. I watch Bloomberg News and read The Economist on long plane rides. Some of my earliest memories are of my grandfather Roy reading me stock quotes. As a three-year-old, I campaigned for my younger sibling to be named after the brokerage firm E.F. Hutton.
The mentality in my household is not around getting the best return, or figuring out your "risk tolerance profile." It's about asking "do I think there's a future in this company, and do I want to be in business with them long-term?" So I'm asking that question a lot. I am engaging in futurism (and research). But with this tail of money. It doesn't feel like putting things in a high-yield savings account. It's more similar to asking "is it worth buying this DVD? Will I watch this movie a lot?"
Overlaid is the way I understand my dad differently than other people understand my dad. He comes off as staid and reliable, which he is. But we have played board games together a lot for very many years, and I know that side of him also. So instead of saying to me that I should diversify or put more money into ETFs, he agrees that picking individual stocks is "more fun." And we do talk about companies we hold, the way somebody else might talk about Pokemon cards, but also like people figuring out how to get the good things we want for the future built.
It's a different relationship I have now with the global economy. I am more directly responsible. It's like becoming a member of the church. I have a hard time explaining it even to myself.
It's also, particularly lately, a tie to my grandfather, who died several years ago. 10 years ago? My grandmother, his wife, died a few months ago, and my inheritance was a small percentage of the stock portfolio - scattered small numbers of shares in blue chip companies like Caterpillar and ExxonMobil, and some muni bond funds. My grandmother was not an investor, so I know these investments were all actually Roy's. (I'm also the one who got Roy's mug, his tie pin, his paperweight, his briefcase. I'm the most Roy-ish grandchild. This is widely understood.) The stocks are solid stocks, but the muni funds are silly. They're less silly for an 80-year-old, but they're still fairly silly, particularly holding $200 in one fund, $200 in another. (Explaining this would be complicated in ways that don't interest me.)
I talked to dad about it in case I'd missed something, and he remembered that just before Roy had his strokes he had been experimenting with those bond funds, which were a new type of investment vehicle at the time, just to see how they worked. He was putting in small amounts basically to track them and get the paperwork so he could figure out whether they were worth a damn - like planting a few seeds of a vegetable you're not sure you'll like, just to see. And then shortly afterward, Roy stopped actively managing the portfolio because he couldn't anymore, and when it passed to Nana, who did not manage it at all, that smattering of tiny bits of muni funds stuck around. There was nobody to follow up.
I have now sold them, years after they probably should have been sold. I'll put the money into something better. (To be clear, I am not against municipal investment, just these municipal investment vehicles, which are mediocre.)
If I was selling a physical piece of property, like Roy's childhood bed (I have this. It was also my childhood bed. Roy's childhood toychest was my toychest. I'm looking at it right now) I would feel as though I was saying goodbye to something, but making this sale makes me feel closer to Roy. It feels as though I am acting as Roy.
I am become Roy. The crown has passed to me.
CONCUSSION?:
About two weeks ago, I was rear-ended on the highway by a speeder. My van was totalled. However, I am an excellent driver (this is the first wreck I've ever been involved in; I maintain enough road awareness that I can usually dodge whatever nonsense is coming at me) and was able to prevent a chain reaction crash by steering into a very sturdy tow truck which was already pulled over, and I had braked to below 5 mph by the time of contact. (If I'd had a few more feet...) And then I was set up to go directly onto the tow truck.
As a result, I might have a very mild concussion, by which I mean that each time I get a sinus headache I am thinking: maybe this is an indicator of concussion. And on the one hand, I suspect this is paranoia. But on the other hand, maybe I completely have a concussion and it's silly of me to think I might not, because I was in a crash that destroyed a 2-ton vehicle.
The real story here is I have a headache today and it's annoying.
STOCKS:
In 2016, I started researching stuff I might want to invest in, for a mixture of reasons which include:
- I have no pension or 401K matching, and would like to retire sometime
- also I could become unable to work or my job could disappear
- I think I would be good at trading equities and would enjoy it
- the above is something a lot of people say and are wrong about, so I should test this theory
- even though as an individual I think savings are extremely valuable, I think from a macroeconomic standpoint they're hoarding and reduce overall wealth because dollars are not being passed on
However, it seemed prudent to wait until after the election, because there seemed to be a lot of exuberance about Trump, and even though I thought he was going to lose, I also thought valuations had gotten pretty irrational. And then Trump was elected and there was that big 2017 boom and although that's exactly the time a lot of people would jump in I felt like "no these things are not this value and I don't want to buy them at that price; these are not based on fundamentals." Which worked out for me because the market took a 10% haircut over the course of 2018 and came back into line with what I think (some) things are worth. (I mean, I spent all year saying "this is overheated and we're about to go into recession." And now instituational investors are saying the same thing, instead of saying "no you're worried about nothing." So ok, we are in the same reality and can do business.)
So at the start of this year I started quitely moving a few thousand dollars at a time into things that I thought were going places. So far they have. I make more purchases every two weeks or so, to spread out (or ladder) my holdings.
Emotionally, it's been an interesting experience, although I try to be dispassionate while I'm doing it. It's interesting partly because a lot of the retail investment advice you hear on the news is targeted at people investing for retirement, which is sort of me - but what I mean is, it's targeted for people who don't know what they're doing, who want essentially high-return savings accounts and see the stock market as that. It's not bad advice, the advice around buying into ETFs and mutual funds (I've done some of that). Most of the advice is: do not buy individual stocks, since you don't know what you're doing.
And it hits me how unusual my family life has been, because my dad was an active investor and his dad was an active investor. Stock prospectuses come to our house all the time. I think we keep the postal service in business. We subscribe to The Wall Street Journal even though we think the Op-Eds are horrifying, because it covers the markets. I watch Bloomberg News and read The Economist on long plane rides. Some of my earliest memories are of my grandfather Roy reading me stock quotes. As a three-year-old, I campaigned for my younger sibling to be named after the brokerage firm E.F. Hutton.
The mentality in my household is not around getting the best return, or figuring out your "risk tolerance profile." It's about asking "do I think there's a future in this company, and do I want to be in business with them long-term?" So I'm asking that question a lot. I am engaging in futurism (and research). But with this tail of money. It doesn't feel like putting things in a high-yield savings account. It's more similar to asking "is it worth buying this DVD? Will I watch this movie a lot?"
Overlaid is the way I understand my dad differently than other people understand my dad. He comes off as staid and reliable, which he is. But we have played board games together a lot for very many years, and I know that side of him also. So instead of saying to me that I should diversify or put more money into ETFs, he agrees that picking individual stocks is "more fun." And we do talk about companies we hold, the way somebody else might talk about Pokemon cards, but also like people figuring out how to get the good things we want for the future built.
It's a different relationship I have now with the global economy. I am more directly responsible. It's like becoming a member of the church. I have a hard time explaining it even to myself.
It's also, particularly lately, a tie to my grandfather, who died several years ago. 10 years ago? My grandmother, his wife, died a few months ago, and my inheritance was a small percentage of the stock portfolio - scattered small numbers of shares in blue chip companies like Caterpillar and ExxonMobil, and some muni bond funds. My grandmother was not an investor, so I know these investments were all actually Roy's. (I'm also the one who got Roy's mug, his tie pin, his paperweight, his briefcase. I'm the most Roy-ish grandchild. This is widely understood.) The stocks are solid stocks, but the muni funds are silly. They're less silly for an 80-year-old, but they're still fairly silly, particularly holding $200 in one fund, $200 in another. (Explaining this would be complicated in ways that don't interest me.)
I talked to dad about it in case I'd missed something, and he remembered that just before Roy had his strokes he had been experimenting with those bond funds, which were a new type of investment vehicle at the time, just to see how they worked. He was putting in small amounts basically to track them and get the paperwork so he could figure out whether they were worth a damn - like planting a few seeds of a vegetable you're not sure you'll like, just to see. And then shortly afterward, Roy stopped actively managing the portfolio because he couldn't anymore, and when it passed to Nana, who did not manage it at all, that smattering of tiny bits of muni funds stuck around. There was nobody to follow up.
I have now sold them, years after they probably should have been sold. I'll put the money into something better. (To be clear, I am not against municipal investment, just these municipal investment vehicles, which are mediocre.)
If I was selling a physical piece of property, like Roy's childhood bed (I have this. It was also my childhood bed. Roy's childhood toychest was my toychest. I'm looking at it right now) I would feel as though I was saying goodbye to something, but making this sale makes me feel closer to Roy. It feels as though I am acting as Roy.
I am become Roy. The crown has passed to me.
(no subject)
Date: 2019-02-07 10:24 pm (UTC)I read economics books for fun so you'd think I'd be good at investing, but no. I actually have to set up a meeting with the teachers' fund to figure that stuff out.
(no subject)
Date: 2019-02-07 10:54 pm (UTC)What I'm dealing with today is a sinus headache (when I say it's a "head" ache it's actually pressure in my nose). It's more like... I feel like I should have been injured? And I feel this way even though I absolutely understand the physics and car technology which prevented me from being injured, which was designed to prevent me from being injured by absorbing the energy and crumpling and buffering and cracking so none of it gets to me. Literally I experienced less force than I would on a roller coaster. The precautions I'm taking are basically identical to stubbing my toe and then refusing to eat sugar in case it's gout, because wouldn't gout be awful?
Of course I've alerted the people around me to step in if they see odd behavior (some of whom work at the hospital). But there is none.
Basically, it's like when Indiana Jones goes over the edge of a cliff in a tank but then is fine and his hat blows over to him, and everybody's like "yep, you're good, let's go." And on the one hand, yeah, let's go get the holy grail now. But also: come on. It's annoying that everybody's fussing over the very damaged car instead of me (because we can't use the car anymore and will need a new one, whereas I'm fine). I'm annoyed even knowing I'd also be annoyed if people fussed over me, because I'm fine and think everybody should trust that I'm fine when I say I'm fine.